Satyr wrote:You should have bet more on the turn in order to set up a pot sized river shove. If you make it $10 on the turn the river pot size is $35 and you have $35 left. Betting 10-12 on turn is better than betting 8 like you did. As played, I would just go allin on the river even though its a slight overbet.
Yeh, bet a bit more on the turn. Unless you under/over bet the pot significantly his turn decision probably won't be affected much by your sizing. You want to setup a smaller (easier to call) shove** on the river, and also extract value from hands that refuse to fold before seeing all five cards.
Unless he's slowplaying a flopped flush, he's never all that strong here and he's trying to showdown a Jack/2pr/maybe a set or he's got some drawing equity, pr+diamond, SD + diamond or AdXo. I'd assume he doesn't limp along with JJ+ so he does NOT have something like KxKd imo. Most of that range is either too strong (in absolute hand value) or can still improve and isn't folding to even a large turn bet, the weak parts of his range isn't calling even a 1/2p bet. The slowplayed flushes all probably raise the turn except maybe the Axs; maybe he remains defensive with the really low flushes but I think he's far more likely to want to get the money in before another diamond hits.
Shoving river is fine (possibly the best line) but I don't think you're up against another flush here often. If you can get paid by some non flush hands then definitely shove, but if not, a smaller bet is probably better since flushes make up such a small part of his range. A 1/4p bet gets value from his entire non-flush range imo, and nets a similar result (to a shove) vs his flush range since he'll almost certainly raise/shove with those hands. Additionally, a 1/4p bet will occasionally induce a spazz from hands that would never call a shove.
** In my experience, bet sizing in live (especially home) games is interpreted very differently than online. People tend not to keep good track of the pot size, and don't compare bet size to pot size. So a $35 bet into a $35 pot won't look that different than a $42 bet into a $28 pot. A $50 bet into a $60 pot looks the same as a $50 bet into $100 pot etc...